Will Economic Interdependence End War? : Émile Durkheim’s Perspective on International Society

 

In recent years, the world has witnessed a seemingly endless series of international conflicts, including the Russia–Ukraine War and conflicts in the Middle East.

Watching the news, we may sometimes find ourselves asking:

“Why does humanity continue to repeat wars in the 21st century, an age of artificial intelligence and space exploration?”

What is particularly interesting is that modern warfare affects the world in ways that are fundamentally different from those of the past.

When war breaks out in one region, stock markets around the world fluctuate, while international oil and natural gas prices surge. Supply chains for semiconductors and grain can also be disrupted almost instantly.

We now live in an era in which a war taking place on the other side of the planet can immediately affect our dinner tables and wallets.

More than a century ago, the French sociologist Émile Durkheim introduced an important concept that can help explain this phenomenon.

It is the Theory of Organic Solidarity and the Division of Labor.

Through Durkheim’s theory, let us take a simple and intuitive look at the relationship between globalization and international peace.

1. Durkheim’s Discovery: “The More Different We Are, the More Strongly We Become Connected”

Durkheim argued that as societies develop, the relationships among people fundamentally change.

He explained this transformation through two concepts: mechanical solidarity and organic solidarity.

# Mechanical Solidarity: A Society Connected Through Similarity

In traditional agricultural societies, most people lived in similar ways.

They farmed, practiced the same religion, and maintained similar lifestyles.

Like standardized parts produced in a factory, the community was held together because its members were similar to one another.

Durkheim called this “mechanical solidarity.”

In such societies, there was relatively little differentiation in the roles performed by individuals.

To put it in extreme terms, even if one person were removed from the community, the community as a whole would not be significantly affected.

# Organic Solidarity: A Society Connected Through Differences

In contrast, the situation is completely different in modern industrial societies.

Doctors treat patients, engineers develop technology, farmers produce food, and drivers handle transportation and logistics.

Although everyone performs a different role, they all depend on one another.

It works much like the human body, where the heart, lungs, and liver perform different functions while working together to sustain a single living organism.

Durkheim described this condition as “organic solidarity.”

In other words, people are connected not because they are similar, but because their differences make them increasingly dependent on one another.

2. The Division of Labor Expanded to International Society: “The Global Village Is One Giant Organism”

When Durkheim’s theory is applied to international society, it leads to a very interesting conclusion.

This is the international division of labor.

Today, the global economy is interconnected through a vast supply chain.

The United States leads in advanced software and financial industries.

South Korea is highly competitive in the memory semiconductor and battery industries.

Taiwan has built the world’s largest semiconductor contract manufacturing system.

The Middle East supplies oil and natural gas, while Australia produces iron ore and rare earth minerals.

It is virtually impossible for any single country to produce everything entirely on its own.

In this way, the global economy operates as an interconnected system, much like a giant living organism.

3. Why Has War Become More Dangerous in Modern Society?

In the past, occupying territory could provide access to additional resources and population.

There were also many cases in which countries gained economic benefits through invasion.

However, the situation is completely different in modern society.

When one country attacks another, the consequences are not limited to military conflict alone.

Supply chains are disrupted, financial markets are shaken, and international trade can be severely paralyzed.

As a result, the aggressor itself can suffer enormous damage, not just the country being attacked.

In the past, war was often an act that clearly divided winners from losers. Today, however, war has become much closer to an act in which everyone loses.

From Durkheim’s perspective, as interdependence between countries increases, the economic costs of war also rise.

As a result, cooperation becomes a far more rational choice than conflict.

4. A Real-World Example: The Russia–Ukraine War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the impact was felt immediately around the world.

Natural gas prices surged across Europe.

Global grain markets were also thrown into serious turmoil.

This was because Ukraine is one of the world’s major grain exporters.

Rising energy prices, in turn, contributed to inflation around the world.

Other continents were no exception.

Electricity and heating costs increased, while food prices were also affected.

In other words, a war taking place on the other side of the world resulted in higher living costs for consumers on other continents.

This case clearly demonstrates just how closely interconnected modern society has become.

5. Why Economic Sanctions Have Become One of the Most Powerful Weapons

Today, some of the most powerful tools of pressure used by the international community are not guns or missiles.

They are economic sanctions.

Typical measures include excluding a country from international financial payment networks or restricting its imports and exports.

This is similar to cutting off the blood vessels of the giant organism that is the global economy.

For example, this can be seen in the case of Russia, which has faced growing economic difficulties as Western sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine have contributed to pressure on the ruble and persistent inflation. Western sanctions have restricted Russia’s exports and international financial transactions, reducing demand for the Russian ruble and placing downward pressure on its value.

In particular, in November 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, one of Russia’s largest banks and a major channel for international energy payments (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2024). The sanctions disrupted foreign-currency flows associated with Russia’s energy trade and contributed to additional downward pressure on the ruble. Following the sanctions, the ruble fell to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar in more than two years (Reuters, 2024).

At the same time, Russia has increasingly limited financial resources available to support its currency and cushion these economic pressures. The liquid assets of Russia’s National Wealth Fund fell sharply from around $100 billion in early 2022 to approximately $31 billion by November 2024 (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024).

The Central Bank of Russia has continued to raise interest rates in an effort to contain inflation and stabilize the ruble. In October 2024, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate by 200 basis points, from 19% to 21%, citing inflation that was running considerably above its previous forecast and rising inflation expectations (Bank of Russia, 2024). With interest rates already at such a high level, further rate increases could impose even greater costs on households and businesses by making borrowing more expensive.

As a result, the Russian economy has come under increasing pressure while inflation has remained persistent. Annual inflation reached approximately 9.32% in December 2024 (TASS, 2024), raising concerns about the risk of stagflation, a combination of high inflation and weak or stagnant economic growth.

As of August 2026, concerns about stagflation in Russia have become increasingly pronounced. The Bank of Russia lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 0–1% while raising its inflation forecast to 6–7% in July 2026. Meanwhile, annual inflation remained around 5.9–6%, even as economic growth slowed sharply. This combination of persistent inflation and near-stagnant economic growth has intensified concerns that Russia is moving into a stagflationary environment (Reuters, 2026; Associated Press, 2026).

In other words, the more closely interconnected countries become, the more powerful economic sanctions can be.

This is also one of the reasons why major powers generally try to avoid full-scale war and pursue diplomatic negotiations whenever possible.

6. An Exception to Durkheim’s Theory: How Can North Korea Be Explained?

If we reverse the logic that greater economic interconnectedness can contribute to peace, it suggests that a country largely isolated from global economic supply chains may face fewer economic constraints against military provocations or conflict.

North Korea provides a notable example.

North Korea remains highly isolated from the global economy.

For most countries, war can quickly disrupt exports, drive up prices, and severely damage the domestic economy because they are deeply embedded in international economic networks—an arrangement comparable to organic solidarity.

North Korea, however, maintains a much more isolated and relatively self-reliant economic system, which can be viewed as being closer to mechanical solidarity in this analogy.

As a result, conventional economic sanctions may not always produce the level of pressure expected. The “economic brake” that might otherwise discourage military confrontation or provocation may therefore function less effectively.

Because North Korea is not as deeply integrated into the vast organism of the global economy, the immediate economic benefits it risks losing through military provocations may be relatively smaller than those faced by countries that are highly dependent on global trade, investment, and financial networks.

In other words, North Korea demonstrates the sociological risk that isolated actors that are not deeply interconnected with others can be much more difficult to constrain.

The case of North Korea therefore offers an important implication.

Ultimately, if the idea of “peace through the division of labor” associated with Durkheim’s theory is to function effectively, the challenge is to bring as many countries as possible into this network of interdependence.

In this sense, integration into the global economy is not merely an economic issue. It can also have important implications for international security and peace.

7. However, Economic Interdependence Does Not Necessarily Guarantee Peace

There is one important fact that should not be overlooked.

Economic interdependence does not necessarily prevent war.

On the eve of World War I, Europe had developed one of the most extensive systems of international trade in its history.

Britain and Germany maintained substantial economic and commercial ties with each other.

Nevertheless, war still broke out.

This was because nationalism, territorial disputes, the arms race, and political tensions ultimately overwhelmed economic interests.

The United States and China also maintain one of the world’s largest trading relationships, while simultaneously engaging in intense strategic competition.

Economic interconnectedness is an important factor in reducing the likelihood of war, but it alone cannot guarantee peace.

Conclusion: Has Globalization Really Made Us More Peaceful?

Durkheim argued that as the division of labor deepens, solidarity among members of society becomes stronger.

When this perspective is applied to international society, it leads to the conclusion that countries that are closely interconnected economically may find it more difficult to choose war.

Of course, reality is not that simple.

Political ambitions, nationalism, struggles for hegemony, and religious conflicts continue to be causes of war.

But one thing is clear.

Today, the world is more deeply interconnected than at any other point in history.

From the imported coffee we drink in the morning and the smartphones in our hands to the semiconductors and batteries used in our cars, countless products are made possible through cooperation among countries around the world.

Perhaps this vast network of interdependence itself is one of the most powerful safeguards supporting peace among humanity.

More than a century ago, Durkheim may already have been showing us why such connections matter.

References

Associated Press. (2026, July 24). Russia’s central bank gingerly cuts rates, caught between business complaints and inflation. https://apnews.com/article/eff2261d27af7408298f784914b66ca3?

Bank of Russia. (2024, October 25). Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 200 bp to 21.00% p.a. Central Bank of the Russian Federation. https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr/?file=25102024_133000Key_eng.htm&

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2024). Russia’s Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?

Durkheim, E. (1983). The Division of Labor in Society. Translated by W. D. Halls. London: Macmillan Press.

Reuters. (2024, November 22). Rouble slumps to over two-year low on new sanctions, geopolitical tension. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rouble-slumps-over-two-year-low-new-sanctions-geopolitical-tension-2024-11-22/?

Reuters. (2026, July 24). Russian central bank cuts key rate by 25 bps to 14% as Ukrainian drones hit economy. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-central-bank-cuts-key-rate-by-25-bps-14-ukrainian-drones-hit-economy-2026-07-24/?

TASS. (2024, December). Russia’s annual inflation accelerates to 9.32%. TASS. https://tass.com/economy/1886051?